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The predicted prevalence of diabetes in Rwanda increases from 12.65% in 2020 to 22.59% in 2025

By Malachie Tuyishime.

In this work done by African Health sciences predict the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adult Rwandan people, the numerical results show that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes increases from 12.65% in 2020 to 22.59% in 2025. Considering Suffering from diabetes, Overweight, Obesity, Dead and other subject as states of mathematical model, the transition matrix whose elements are probabilities is generated using Metropolis-Hasting sampling.

Comparing the prevalence of diabetes in 2015 and 2025 it is shown that it will be multiplied by more than 8% in 10 years. A high increase between 2015 and 2025 in prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Rwanda depends on many factors. Available literature indicates that urbanization and the change in lifestyle are one of the factors. Being overweighed or obese is strongly associated to type 2 diabetes; more prevalence of them influences more prevalence of type 2 diabetes.

Intervention to overcome overweight and obesity are critical ones to prevent type 2 diabetes. The prevalence of obesity will be decreased to 1.7% in 2025. The prevalence of overweight is expected to be 32.63% in 2025.

Rwanda is one of the among few countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that have a strategic plan for NCD integrated into their public health care system Rwanda is included but the management of this chronic disease is still a problem.

Generally the increase of diabetes is due to either modifiable risk factors such as lack of physical activity, the use tobacco, use of alcohol, and unhealthy diets like increased fat and sodium. Some risk factors like both low quantity and quality of fruits and vegetables intake which can be controlled by intervention others are non-modifiable risk factor which are risk factor that cannot be controlled by involvement; for example: gender, age, family history, and race or to metabolic risk factors such as raised blood pressure, raised total cholesterol elevated glucose, obesity and overweight. Behaviors or modifiable risk factors can lead to metabolic or physiologic changes. The rate of death caused by diabetes will be 0.00001 in 2025.

 Approximately 425 million adults (age 20 to 79 years) have diabetes worldwide. In 2045, this number is expected to rise up to 629 million. In Africa, the number of patients with diabetes is expected to rise from 16 to 41 million (+156%). According to the World Health Organization, 2.8% of the Rwandan populations are estimated to have diabetes.

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